Chiefs vs Bengals – Week 13 2022
KC
CIN
KC
AWAY
24@27
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 65%Our line: KC -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.204Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.186 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
-0.019 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
50.4% (1)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs CIN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 5.3. The market has KC at -2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, KC 24, CIN 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -2.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 5.5 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, CIN 25, KC 26 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against CIN +0.125.
