2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ CIN – Week 13 2022
KC
CIN
KC
AWAY
24@27
CIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 65%Projected margin: -3.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.2 -- the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -132 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES