GB @ CHI – Week 13 2022
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
28@19
GB BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: GB 66%Our line: GB -5.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-192
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.003Offense EPA / play-0.046
+0.037Defense EPA / play+0.118
45.8%Offense success %40.5%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 9. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -182 | +163 |
| Our fair price | -192 | +192 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
Aaron Jones
RB
248.6 SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
239.2 SEASON PPR
Allen Lazard
WR
174.8 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Aaron Rodgers3695 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Aaron Jones1121 yd · 2 TD
AJ Dillon770 yd · 7 TD
Aaron Rodgers94 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Lazard60 rec · 788 yd · 6 TD
Christian Watson41 rec · 611 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.5. The market has GB at -4.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, GB 16, CHI 22 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: GB -0.034 against CHI -0.164.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
