TEN @ PHI – Week 13 2022
TEN
PHI
TEN
AWAY
10@35
PHI BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 65%Our line: PHI -5.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.172
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.107
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.064
41.1%Offense success %48.3%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 25. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +189 | -213 |
| Our fair price | +189 | -189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8 SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2 SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1538 yd · 13 TD
Dontrell Hilliard145 yd · 0 TD
Malik Willis123 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
Chig Okonkwo32 rec · 450 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.4. The market has PHI at -5.0.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: TEN -0.064 against PHI +0.172.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
