Bills vs Patriots – Week 13 2022
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
24@10
BUF BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 24, New England Patriots 10.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: BUF 62%Our line: BUF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.168Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
49.0% (2)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 14. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.1. The market has BUF at -3.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 24, NE 10. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against NE +0.035.
