Steelers vs Falcons – Week 13 2022
PIT
ATL
PIT
AWAY
19@16
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Atlanta Falcons 16.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 56%Our line: PIT -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.012Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
45.1% (12)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 2.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PITW1 2026 | ATL 13, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
| PIT@ATLW1 2024 | PIT 18, ATL 10 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs ATL
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.1. The market has PIT at -1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 19, ATL 16. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -1.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 13, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 4.4 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, ATL 13, PIT 20 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.012 against ATL -0.075.
