Jets vs Vikings – Week 13 2022
NYJ
MIN
NYJ
AWAY
22@27
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 22, Minnesota Vikings 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 65%Our line: MIN -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.011 (19)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (21)
39.0% (30)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MINW5 2024 | NYJ 17, MIN 23 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.2. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, NYJ 22, MIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 1.2 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, NYJ 17, MIN 23 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Minnesota Vikings: NYJ -0.036 against MIN -0.023.
