NYJ @ MIN – Week 13 2022
NYJ
MIN
NYJ
AWAY
22@27
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 65%Our line: MIN -5.2
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.2
OUR LINE
-186
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.087Offense EPA / play-0.011
-0.051Defense EPA / play+0.012
39.0%Offense success %44.9%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +132 | -146 |
| Our fair price | +186 | -186 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5 SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall463 yd · 4 TD
Michael Carter402 yd · 3 TD
Bam Knight300 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson83 rec · 1103 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Conklin58 rec · 552 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MINW5 2024 | NYJ 17, MIN 23 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.2. The market has MIN at -3.0.
The model projects 45.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, NYJ 17, MIN 23 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Minnesota Vikings: NYJ -0.036 against MIN -0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
