Jets vs Vikings – Week 5 2024
NYJ
MIN
NYJ
AWAY
17@23
MIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 17, Minnesota Vikings 23.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.103
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (15)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (3)
42.6% (18)Offense success %45.6% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 6.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MINW13 2022 | NYJ 22, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.2. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, NYJ 17, MIN 23. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Minnesota Vikings, NYJ 22, MIN 27 in Week 13 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: NYJ -0.037 against MIN +0.103.
