Bills vs Texans – Week 5 2024
BUF
HOU
BUF
AWAY
20@23
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 20, Houston Texans 23.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bills, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.197Net EPA / play+0.015
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
47.5% (7)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but HOU won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@HOUW1 2026 | BUF 36, HOU 31 | HOU | L |
| BUF@HOUW12 2025 | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| HOU@BUFW4 2021 | HOU 0, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs HOU
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.9. The market has BUF at +1.0.
Houston Texans won, BUF 20, HOU 23. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +1.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 5, the Buffalo Bills were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 3.1 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 36, HOU 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against HOU +0.015.
