2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ HOU – Week 5 2024
BUF
HOU
BUF
AWAY
20@23
HOU +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 64%Projected margin: -2.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 5.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@HOUW12 2025 | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| HOU@BUFW4 2021 | HOU 0, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES