CAR @ CHI – Week 5 2024
CAR
CHI
CAR
AWAY
10@36
CHI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 68%Our line: CHI -6.3
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.3
OUR LINE
-213
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.213Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.053Offense EPA / play-0.082
+0.160Defense EPA / play+0.006
41.3%Offense success %39.9%
50.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 26. Off by 19.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 |
| Our fair price | +213 | -213 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0 SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young2403 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Hubbard1195 yd · 10 TD
B.Young249 yd · 6 TD
M.Sanders205 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Thielen45 rec · 558 yd · 5 TD
X.Legette49 rec · 497 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CARW6 2020 | CHI 23, CAR 16 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 6.3. The market has CHI at -4.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CAR 13, CHI 16 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: CAR -0.213 against CHI -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
