2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ CHI – Week 5 2024
CAR
CHI
CAR
AWAY
10@36
CHI +26
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CHI 68%Projected margin: 5.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 26. Off by 20.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -198 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CARW6 2020 | CHI 23, CAR 16 | CAR | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES