Bears vs Panthers – Week 6 2020
CHI
CAR
CHI
AWAY
23@16
CHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 23, Carolina Panthers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CAR 50%Our line: CAR +0.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR +0.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.033Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
43.6% (22)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but CHI won. Projected margin was 0.1, the model overestimated by 6.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CARW1 2026 | CHI 59, CAR 37 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW5 2024 | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.1. The market has CAR at -2.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 23, CAR 16. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -2.0, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 6, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 59, CAR 37 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.033 against CAR -0.073.
