CHI @ CAR – Week 6 2020
CHI
CAR
CHI
AWAY
23@16
CHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 50%Our line: CAR +0.1
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.1
OUR LINE
+101
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.033Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.028Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.006Defense EPA / play+0.077
43.6%Offense success %45.0%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but CHI won. Projected margin was 0.1, the model overestimated by 6.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +112 | -124 |
| Our fair price | -101 | +101 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
Darnell Mooney
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CHIW5 2024 | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.1. The market has CAR at -2.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CAR 10, CHI 36 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.033 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
