2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ CAR – Week 6 2020
CHI
CAR
CHI
AWAY
23@16
CHI +7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 50%Projected margin: -0.9
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but CHI won. Projected margin was 0.9 -- the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7SEASON PPR
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CHIW5 2024 | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES