Jets vs Dolphins – Week 6 2020
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
0@24
MIA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 0, Miami Dolphins 24.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets.
Model confidence: MIA 63%Our line: MIA -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.143 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.084 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
40.2% (31)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 24. Off by 19.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.5. The market has MIA at -9.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYJ 0, MIA 24. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -9.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 6, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 0.7 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.227 against MIA +0.048.
