Rams vs 49ers – Week 6 2020
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
16@24
SF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 16, San Francisco 49ers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: LA 55%Our line: LA -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.042
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.008 (18)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
44.5% (20)Offense success %46.0% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 1.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
No noteworthy trends
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SF
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 1.6. The market has LA at -2.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, LA 16, SF 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -2.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 6, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 5.3 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against SF +0.042.
