Falcons vs Vikings – Week 6 2020
ATL
MIN
ATL
AWAY
40@23
ATL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 40, Minnesota Vikings 23.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 5 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.3
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
48.2
VEGAS LINE
53.0
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.042Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (8)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (27)
43.2% (26)Offense success %49.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 20.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ATLW9 2023 | MIN 31, ATL 28 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.3. The market has MIN at -3.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 40, MIN 23. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 4.8 below the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, MIN 6 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: ATL -0.042 against MIN -0.003.
