ATL @ MIN – Week 6 2020
ATL
MIN
ATL
AWAY
40@23
ATL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.3
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-148
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.042Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.021Offense EPA / play+0.095
+0.063Defense EPA / play+0.098
43.2%Offense success %49.2%
47.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 20.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +167 | -188 |
| Our fair price | +148 | -148 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
Russell Gage72 rec · 786 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ATLW9 2023 | MIN 31, ATL 28 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.3. The market has MIN at -3.5.
The model projects 48.2 combined points. The market total is 53.0.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, MIN 6 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: ATL -0.042 against MIN -0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
