HOU @ TEN – Week 6 2020
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
36@42
TEN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.5
TEN
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-217
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.099Offense EPA / play+0.171
+0.170Defense EPA / play+0.117
47.6%Offense success %50.1%
50.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 6.5. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +169 | -190 |
| Our fair price | +217 | -217 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
Will Fuller53 rec · 879 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.5. The market has TEN at -4.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 52.0.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 16, TEN 13 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: HOU -0.071 against TEN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
