Bengals vs Colts – Week 6 2020
CIN
IND
CIN
AWAY
27@31
IND BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 65%Our line: IND -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -5.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
43.6% (23)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 5.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@CINW14 2023 | IND 14, CIN 34 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 5.0. The market has IND at -7.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, CIN 27, IND 31. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -7.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 6, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 2.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, IND 14, CIN 34 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: CIN -0.141 against IND +0.109.
