CIN @ IND – Week 6 2020
CIN
IND
CIN
AWAY
27@31
IND BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 65%Our line: IND -5.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-182
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.049Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.092Defense EPA / play-0.030
43.6%Offense success %46.6%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 5.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +288 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +182 | -182 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CIN
Tee Higgins
WR
194.6 SEASON PPR
Tyler Boyd
WR
192.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
173.7 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2688 yd · 13 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon428 yd · 3 TD
Giovani Bernard416 yd · 3 TD
Samaje Perine301 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tee Higgins67 rec · 908 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Boyd79 rec · 841 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@CINW14 2023 | IND 14, CIN 34 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 5.0. The market has IND at -7.5.
The model projects 48.0 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, IND 14, CIN 34 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: CIN -0.141 against IND +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
