2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ JAX – Week 6 2020
DET
JAX
DET
AWAY
34@16
DET +18
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 54%Projected margin: 1.6
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
1.6
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DET won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 19.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +139 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8SEASON PPR
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW11 2024 | JAX 6, DET 52 | DET | W |
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES