DET @ JAX – Week 6 2020
DET
JAX
DET
AWAY
34@16
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 54%Our line: JAX -1.3
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.3
OUR LINE
-116
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.204
-0.005Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.203Defense EPA / play+0.145
44.3%Offense success %41.5%
51.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DET won. Projected margin was 1.3, the model overestimated by 19.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -154 | +139 |
| Our fair price | +116 | -116 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+13%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4084 yd · 26 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Adrian Peterson604 yd · 7 TD
D'Andre Swift521 yd · 8 TD
Kerryon Johnson181 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones76 rec · 978 yd · 9 TD
T.J. Hockenson67 rec · 723 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW11 2024 | JAX 6, DET 52 | DET | W |
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 1.3. The market has JAX at +3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, JAX 6, DET 52 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: DET -0.208 against JAX -0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
