Lions vs Jaguars – Week 6 2020
DET
JAX
DET
AWAY
34@16
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 16.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions.
Model confidence: JAX 54%Our line: JAX -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -1.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.204
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (28)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.145 (30)
44.3% (21)Offense success %41.5% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DET won. Projected margin was 1.3, the model overestimated by 19.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW11 2024 | JAX 6, DET 52 | DET | W |
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 1.3. The market has JAX at +3.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 34, JAX 16. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +3.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 6.8 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, JAX 6, DET 52 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: DET -0.208 against JAX -0.204.
