Jaguars vs Lions – Week 13 2022
JAX
DET
JAX
AWAY
14@40
DET BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 14, Detroit Lions 40.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 61%Our line: DET -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.067Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
46.3% (5)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 26. Off by 22.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW11 2024 | JAX 6, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@JAXW6 2020 | DET 34, JAX 16 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 3.9. The market has DET at -1.0.
Detroit Lions won, JAX 14, DET 40. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -1.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 13, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, JAX 6, DET 52 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against DET -0.006.
