Chargers vs Raiders – Week 13 2022
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
20@27
LV BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 58%Our line: LV -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
44.1% (18)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 7. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 2.6. The market has LV at -2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LAC 20, LV 27. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -2.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.4 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against LV -0.064.
