IND @ DAL – Week 13 2022
IND
DAL
IND
AWAY
19@54
DAL BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 77%Our line: DAL -9.9
DAL
PICK SIDE
-11.0
MARKET SPREAD
-9.9
OUR LINE
-333
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.168Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.027Defense EPA / play-0.097
39.8%Offense success %44.6%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 35. Off by 25.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +376 | -460 |
| Our fair price | +333 | -333 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -11.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.21
OUR NUMBER
77%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3 SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor861 yd · 4 TD
Zack Moss365 yd · 1 TD
Deon Jackson236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman99 rec · 925 yd · 4 TD
Parris Campbell63 rec · 623 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 9.9. The market has DAL at -11.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: IND -0.141 against DAL +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
