Colts vs Cowboys – Week 13 2022
IND
DAL
IND
AWAY
19@54
DAL BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 19, Dallas Cowboys 54.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: DAL 77%Our line: DAL -9.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -9.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.168 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
-0.027 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
39.8% (29)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 35. Off by 25.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 9.9. The market has DAL at -11.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, IND 19, DAL 54. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -11.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 13, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: IND -0.141 against DAL +0.109.
