2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ BAL – Week 13 2022
DEN
BAL
DEN
AWAY
9@10
BAL +1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 74%Projected margin: 7.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
7.9
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 1. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -347 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BALW9 2024 | DEN 10, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| BAL@DENW4 2021 | BAL 23, DEN 7 | BAL | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES