Dolphins vs 49ers – Week 13 2022
MIA
SF
MIA
AWAY
17@33
SF BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, San Francisco 49ers 33.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.211
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.085 (4)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.126 (1)
44.5% (16)Offense success %46.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 16. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SFW2 2026 | MIA 13, SF 35 | SF | W |
| SF@MIAW16 2024 | SF 17, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 3.4. The market has SF at -4.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, MIA 17, SF 33. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -4.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 13, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, MIA 13, SF 35 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIA +0.039 against SF +0.211.
