2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ SF – Week 13 2022
MIA
SF
MIA
AWAY
17@33
SF +16
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 60%Projected margin: 1.9
SF
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 1.9. Actual: 16. Off by 14.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -222 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MIAW16 2024 | SF 17, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES