MIA @ SF – Week 2 2026
MIA
SF
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SF 72%Projected margin: -6.4
SF
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
-6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.070
41.9%Offense success %48.3%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
SF backed by epa edge at 72%.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.088 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
SF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
SF scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds2,167
1,837RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MIAW16 2024 | SF 17, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
| MIA@SFW13 2022 | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs SF
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SF by 6.4. The market has SF at -10.5.
When do the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers game?
Miami Dolphins, 17-29 in Week 16 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIA -0.105 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
