Dolphins vs 49ers – Week 2 2026
MIA
SF
MIA
AWAY
13@35
SF BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 77%Our line: SF -9.8
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.276
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.209 (2)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
37.6% (30)Offense success %52.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 22. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MIAW16 2024 | SF 17, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
| MIA@SFW13 2022 | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 9.8. The market has SF at -13.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, MIA 13, SF 35. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -13.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 2, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 0.0 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Miami Dolphins, SF 17, MIA 29 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIA -0.224 against SF +0.276.
