Bengals vs Texans – Week 2 2026
CIN
HOU
CIN
AWAY
20@6
CIN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.072 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
-0.030 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
47.1% (8)Offense success %42.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CIN won. Projected margin was 6.6, the model overestimated by 20.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CINW10 2023 | HOU 30, CIN 27 | CIN | L |
| CIN@HOUW16 2020 | CIN 37, HOU 31 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.6. The market has HOU at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 20, HOU 6. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 1.4 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 30, CIN 27 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.102 against HOU +0.048.
