CIN @ HOU – Week 2 2026
CIN
HOU
CIN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 74%Projected margin: -8.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-8.0
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.130Defense EPA / play-0.131
45.5%Offense success %41.3%
47.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on HOU at 74% confidence.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates -0.013 EPA/play on offense. CIN's defense allows 0.130. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
HOU is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.0-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
C.Brown69 rec · 437 yd · 5 TD
A.Iosivas33 rec · 435 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,809PASSyds3,041
1,446RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CINW10 2023 | HOU 30, CIN 27 | CIN | L |
| CIN@HOUW16 2020 | CIN 37, HOU 31 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs HOU
Who is favored in Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 8.0. The market has HOU at -2.5.
When do the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 30-27 in Week 10 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Cincinnati Bengals or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: CIN -0.138 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
