Texans vs Bengals – Week 10 2023
HOU
CIN
HOU
AWAY
30@27
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 30, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 8 Texans, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 74%Our line: CIN -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -8.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.044
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
40.9% (23)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but HOU won. Projected margin was 8.7, the model overestimated by 11.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@HOUW2 2026 | CIN 20, HOU 6 | HOU | L |
| CIN@HOUW16 2020 | CIN 37, HOU 31 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 8.7. The market has CIN at -5.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 30, CIN 27. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -5.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 10, the Houston Texans were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 1.6 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 20, HOU 6 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against CIN -0.044.
