Broncos vs Bills – Week 10 2023
DEN
BUF
DEN
AWAY
24@22
DEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 24, Buffalo Bills 22.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 77%Our line: BUF -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
42.1% (14)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but DEN won. Projected margin was 9.8, the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DENW15 2020 | BUF 48, DEN 19 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.8. The market has BUF at -7.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 24, BUF 22. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 2.7 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 48, DEN 19 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: DEN -0.077 against BUF +0.182.
