2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ LV – Week 10 2023
NYJ
LV
NYJ
AWAY
12@16
LV +4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 67%Projected margin: 3.5
LV
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
3.5
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 3.5. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -105 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NYJW13 2020 | LV 31, NYJ 28 | LV | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES