Jets vs Raiders – Week 10 2023
NYJ
LV
NYJ
AWAY
12@16
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 12, Las Vegas Raiders 16.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 67%Our line: LV -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
35.0% (32)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 5.9. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NYJW13 2020 | LV 31, NYJ 28 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 5.9. The market has LV at +1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, NYJ 12, LV 16. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 10.3 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 31, NYJ 28 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: NYJ -0.133 against LV -0.037.
