Panthers vs Bears – Week 10 2023
CAR
CHI
CAR
AWAY
13@16
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 13, Chicago Bears 16.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Panthers, 5 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 58%Our line: CHI -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -2.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.200Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.177 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
+0.023 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
37.6% (31)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CARW1 2026 | CHI 59, CAR 37 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW5 2024 | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CARW6 2020 | CHI 23, CAR 16 | CAR | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.7. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, CAR 13, CHI 16. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Carolina Panthers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 7.4 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 59, CAR 37 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: CAR -0.200 against CHI -0.007.
