Browns vs Ravens – Week 10 2023
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
33@31
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 33, Baltimore Ravens 31.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns.
Model confidence: BAL 72%Our line: BAL -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
38.9% (29)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CLE won. Projected margin was 7.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.9. The market has BAL at -6.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 33, BAL 31. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 10, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 6.9 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE +0.045 against BAL +0.215.
