2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ TB – Week 10 2023
TEN
TB
TEN
AWAY
6@20
TB +14
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 68%Projected margin: 3.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.6
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 14. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8SEASON PPR
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES