Titans vs Buccaneers – Week 10 2023
TEN
TB
TEN
AWAY
6@20
TB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 6, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Titans, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 68%Our line: TB -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
39.7% (26)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 14. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.3. The market has TB at -2.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TEN 6, TB 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 4.9 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TEN -0.055 against TB +0.007.
