TEN @ TB – Week 10 2023
TEN
TB
TEN
AWAY
6@20
TB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 68%Our line: TB -6.3
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.3
OUR LINE
-212
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.047Offense EPA / play-0.017
+0.007Defense EPA / play-0.024
39.7%Offense success %39.6%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 14. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -142 |
| Our fair price | +212 | -212 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6 SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1167 yd · 12 TD
Tyjae Spears453 yd · 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill74 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins75 rec · 1057 yd · 7 TD
Chig Okonkwo54 rec · 528 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.3. The market has TB at -2.5.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TEN -0.055 against TB +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
