Commanders vs Seahawks – Week 10 2023
WAS
SEA
WAS
AWAY
26@29
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 26, Seattle Seahawks 29.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 66%Our line: SEA -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.190Net EPA / play-0.035
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (11)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.051 (30)
41.0% (21)Offense success %43.9% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@WASW3 2026 | SEA 31, WAS 33 | SEA | L |
| SEA@WASW9 2025 | SEA 38, WAS 14 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW12 2021 | SEA 15, WAS 17 | WAS | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.5. The market has SEA at -6.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, WAS 26, SEA 29. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -6.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 10, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Washington Commanders, SEA 31, WAS 33 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: WAS -0.190 against SEA -0.035.
