Colts vs Patriots – Week 10 2023
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
10@6
IND BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 10, New England Patriots 6.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 56%Our line: NE -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
40.8% (24)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but IND won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.1. The market has NE at +1.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 10, NE 6. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +1.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 25, NE 24 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against NE -0.136.
