2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ NE – Week 10 2023
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
10@6
IND +4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 56%Projected margin: 0.3
NE
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but IND won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 4.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6SEASON PPR
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES