2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ NE – Week 9 2022
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
3@26
NE +23
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 64%Projected margin: 3.5
NE
PICK SIDE
-5.0
SPREAD
3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 23. Off by 19.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -212 | Won · +$0.49 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES