Colts vs Patriots – Week 9 2022
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
3@26
NE BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 3, New England Patriots 26.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 64%Our line: NE -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.168 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
-0.027 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
39.8% (29)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 23. Off by 18.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.8. The market has NE at -5.0.
New England Patriots won, IND 3, NE 26. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -5.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 9, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 8.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 25, NE 24 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: IND -0.141 against NE +0.035.
