Panthers vs Bengals – Week 9 2022
CAR
CIN
CAR
AWAY
21@42
CIN BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 21, Cincinnati Bengals 42.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Panthers, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 67%Our line: CIN -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.125
-0.035 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
+0.003 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
40.7% (25)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 21. Off by 15.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@CARW4 2024 | CIN 34, CAR 24 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.0. The market has CIN at -7.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CAR 21, CIN 42. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, CAR 24 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CAR -0.037 against CIN +0.125.
