2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ CAR – Week 4 2024
CIN
CAR
CIN
AWAY
34@24
CIN +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CIN 65%Projected margin: -2.6
CIN
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 10. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -205 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CINW9 2022 | CAR 21, CIN 42 | CIN | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES