Bengals vs Panthers – Week 4 2024
CIN
CAR
CIN
AWAY
34@24
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Carolina Panthers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals, 3 Panthers.
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
47.2% (9)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 10. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CINW9 2022 | CAR 21, CIN 42 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CAR
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.4. The market has CIN at -4.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 34, CAR 24. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -4.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.6 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CAR 21, CIN 42 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against CAR -0.213.
