CIN @ CAR – Week 4 2024
CIN
CAR
CIN
AWAY
34@24
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.4
CIN
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.090Offense EPA / play-0.053
+0.037Defense EPA / play+0.160
47.2%Offense success %41.3%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 10. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +170 |
| Our fair price | -189 | +189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0 SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow4918 yd · 43 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown990 yd · 7 TD
Z.Moss242 yd · 2 TD
J.Burrow201 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase127 rec · 1708 yd · 17 TD
T.Higgins73 rec · 911 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CINW9 2022 | CAR 21, CIN 42 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.4. The market has CIN at -4.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CAR 21, CIN 42 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against CAR -0.213.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
