2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ CHI – Week 4 2024
LA
CHI
LA
AWAY
18@24
CHI +6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 63%Projected margin: -1.6
LA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but CHI won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 7.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +136 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
206.6SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@LAW1 2021 | CHI 14, LA 34 | LA | W |
| CHI@LAW7 2020 | CHI 10, LA 24 | LA | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES