Rams vs Bears – Week 4 2024
LA
CHI
LA
AWAY
18@24
CHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 18, Chicago Bears 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: LA 63%Our line: LA -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.030Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.014 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
+0.044 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
46.8% (10)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but CHI won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 10.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@LAW1 2021 | CHI 14, LA 34 | LA | W |
| CHI@LAW7 2020 | CHI 10, LA 24 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs CHI
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 4.6. The market has LA at +3.0.
Chicago Bears won, LA 18, CHI 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, CHI 14, LA 34 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA -0.030 against CHI -0.088.
