Bears vs Rams – Week 7 2020
CHI
LA
CHI
AWAY
10@24
LA BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 10, Los Angeles Rams 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears.
Model confidence: LA 55%Our line: LA -1.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.033Net EPA / play+0.162
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (23)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.177 (1)
43.6% (22)Offense success %44.5% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 14. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@CHIW4 2024 | LA 18, CHI 24 | LA | L |
| CHI@LAW1 2021 | CHI 14, LA 34 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 1.8. The market has LA at -6.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, CHI 10, LA 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -6.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 7, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 3.1 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, LA 18, CHI 24 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: CHI -0.033 against LA +0.162.
