SF @ NE – Week 7 2020
SF
NE
SF
AWAY
33@6
SF BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: SF 49%Our line: SF +0.4
SF
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.4
OUR LINE
+105
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.042Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.008Offense EPA / play-0.004
-0.034Defense EPA / play+0.071
46.0%Offense success %46.1%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 27. Off by 27.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 30.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -167 |
| Our fair price | +105 | -105 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
49%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
39%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
Kendrick Bourne49 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 0.4. The market has SF at +3.0.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, NE 13, SF 30 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against NE -0.076.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
