49ers vs Patriots – Week 7 2020
SF
NE
SF
AWAY
33@6
SF BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 33, New England Patriots 6.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 49% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: SF 49%Our line: SF +0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF +0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.042Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.008 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
46.0% (14)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 27. Off by 27.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 30.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs NE
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 0.4. The market has SF at +3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 33, NE 6. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 49% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at +3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, NE 13, SF 30 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against NE -0.076.
