Steelers vs Titans – Week 7 2020
PIT
TEN
PIT
AWAY
27@24
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Tennessee Titans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: TEN 57%Our line: TEN -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
43.2% (25)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 5.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@PITW9 2023 | TEN 16, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
| TEN@PITW15 2021 | TEN 13, PIT 19 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.3. The market has TEN at -1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 27, TEN 24. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -1.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 7, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 4.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, TEN 16, PIT 20 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against TEN +0.053.
