Buccaneers vs Raiders – Week 7 2020
TB
LV
TB
AWAY
45@20
TB BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45, Las Vegas Raiders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: TB 55%Our line: TB -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -1.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
45.9% (15)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 25. Off by 23.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs LV
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 1.7. The market has TB at -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 45, LV 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 3.8 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LV 13, TB 28 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against LV -0.085.
