2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ LV – Week 7 2020
TB
LV
TB
AWAY
45@20
TB +25
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 55%Projected margin: -2.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 25. Off by 22.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0SEASON PPR
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES