Browns vs Bengals – Week 7 2020
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
37@34
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 37, Cincinnati Bengals 34.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: CLE 56%Our line: CLE -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
46.6% (9)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 2.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CIN
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.2. The market has CLE at -4.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 37, CIN 34. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -4.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 7, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.0 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against CIN -0.141.
