Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 7 2020
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
43@16
KC BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 43, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chiefs, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: KC 58%Our line: KC -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
50.1% (3)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 27. Off by 24.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
14°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
14°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 2.6. The market has KC at -7.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 43, DEN 16. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.138 against DEN -0.147.
