Jaguars vs Chargers – Week 7 2020
JAX
LAC
JAX
AWAY
29@39
LAC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 29, Los Angeles Chargers 39.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jaguars, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 55%Our line: LAC -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -1.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.059 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.145 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
41.5% (28)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 10. Off by 8.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@JAXW11 2025 | LAC 6, JAX 35 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW3 2022 | JAX 38, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.7. The market has LAC at -8.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, JAX 29, LAC 39. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -8.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 7, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, LAC 6, JAX 35 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: JAX -0.204 against LAC +0.001.
