JAX @ LAC – Week 7 2020
JAX
LAC
JAX
AWAY
29@39
LAC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 55%Our line: LAC -1.7
LAC
PICK SIDE
-8.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.7
OUR LINE
-122
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.027
+0.145Defense EPA / play+0.026
41.5%Offense success %43.2%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 10. Off by 8.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +325 | -389 |
| Our fair price | +122 | -122 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -8.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.32
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
Keelan Cole55 rec · 642 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@JAXW11 2025 | LAC 6, JAX 35 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW3 2022 | JAX 38, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.7. The market has LAC at -8.0.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, LAC 6, JAX 35 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: JAX -0.204 against LAC +0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
