Jaguars vs Chargers – Week 3 2022
JAX
LAC
JAX
AWAY
38@10
JAX BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 38, Los Angeles Chargers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 65%Our line: LAC -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.067Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (13)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (19)
46.3% (5)Offense success %44.1% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but JAX won. Projected margin was 5.1, the model overestimated by 33.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 34.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@JAXW11 2025 | LAC 6, JAX 35 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW7 2020 | JAX 29, LAC 39 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.1. The market has LAC at -6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 38, LAC 10. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 1.1 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, LAC 6, JAX 35 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against LAC +0.001.
