2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ LAC – Week 3 2022
JAX
LAC
JAX
AWAY
38@10
JAX +28
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 65%Projected margin: 4.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 32.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 34.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -252 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@JAXW11 2025 | LAC 6, JAX 35 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW7 2020 | JAX 29, LAC 39 | LAC | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES