2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ MIN – Week 3 2022
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
24@28
MIN +4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 62%Projected margin: 3.1
MIN
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -266 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9SEASON PPR
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES