Vikings vs Lions – Week 18 2024
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
9@31
DET BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 9, Detroit Lions 31.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 68%Our line: DET -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.103Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
45.6% (12)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 22. Off by 15.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW16 2023 | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 6.2. The market has DET at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, MIN 9, DET 31. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 18, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 9.9 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: MIN +0.103 against DET +0.232.
