Seahawks vs Rams – Week 18 2024
SEA
LA
SEA
AWAY
30@25
SEA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 30, Los Angeles Rams 25.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 7 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 71%Our line: LA -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -7.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.030
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
43.9% (16)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SEA won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
| LA@SEAW1 2023 | LA 30, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 7.4. The market has LA at +7.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 30, LA 25. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +7.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 18, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 5.5 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, LA 37, SEA 38 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.018 against LA -0.030.
