Browns vs Ravens – Week 18 2024
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
10@35
BAL BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 10, Baltimore Ravens 35.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Browns, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 85%Our line: BAL -14.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -19.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -14.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.269
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
37.0% (32)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 14.0. Actual: 25. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 31°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
31°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 14.0. The market has BAL at -19.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, CLE 10, BAL 35. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -19.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 19.5 points.
In Week 18, the Cleveland Browns were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE -0.201 against BAL +0.269.
