2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ BAL – Week 18 2024
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
10@35
BAL +25
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 85%Projected margin: 14.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-19.5
SPREAD
14.7
PROJ MARGIN
-1655
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 14.7. Actual: 25. Off by 10.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 31°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -19.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -1655 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -2400 | Won · +$0.06 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
31°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW4 2023 | BAL 28, CLE 3 | CLE | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES