CLE @ BAL – Week 2 2025
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
17@41
BAL BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 82%Our line: BAL -12.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-12.5
OUR LINE
-466
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.190Offense EPA / play+0.034
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.024
34.5%Offense success %44.6%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 12.5. Actual: 24. Off by 11.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +600 | -900 |
| Our fair price | +466 | -466 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
82%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW4 2023 | BAL 28, CLE 3 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 12.5. The market has BAL at -12.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, CLE 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE -0.094 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
