Eagles vs Chiefs – Week 2 2025
PHI
KC
PHI
AWAY
20@17
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: PHI 62%Our line: PHI -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | PHI | KC | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -122 | +102 |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
43.1% (20)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1 SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3 SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW11 2023 | PHI 21, KC 17 | KC | L |
| KC@PHIW4 2021 | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs KC
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.2. The market has PHI at -1.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 20, KC 17. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -1.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 21, KC 17 in Week 11 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against KC +0.055.
