PHI @ KC – Week 2 2025
PHI
KC
PHI
AWAY
20@17
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 62%Our line: PHI -4.2
PHI
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.026Offense EPA / play+0.035
-0.079Defense EPA / play-0.020
43.1%Offense success %44.5%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -122 | +102 |
| Our fair price | -165 | +165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1 SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3 SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
A.Brown78 rec · 1003 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW11 2023 | PHI 21, KC 17 | KC | L |
| KC@PHIW4 2021 | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.2. The market has PHI at -1.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 21, KC 17 in Week 11 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
