BAL @ CLE – Week 11 2025
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
23@16
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.6
OUR LINE
-249
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.096
44.6%Offense success %34.5%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -440 | +340 |
| Our fair price | -249 | +249 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5 SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3 SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW4 2023 | BAL 28, CLE 3 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.6. The market has BAL at -7.5.
The model projects 42.8 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, CLE 17, BAL 41 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
