Ravens vs Browns – Week 11 2025
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
23@16
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 23, Cleveland Browns 16.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Ravens, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
44.6% (13)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.6. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 23, CLE 16. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.8, 5.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against CLE -0.094.
