2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CLE – Week 11 2025
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
23@16
BAL +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 71%Projected margin: -5.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 5.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW4 2023 | BAL 28, CLE 3 | CLE | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES